between two well-defined cultural groups has per-
sisted in the form of protracted violent conflict for
generations. A striking example is the Israel-Palestine
conflict with its complex historical background; in this
case preparing for offence seems pointless as both
sides already live in a state of persistent and multi-
faceted injury, aggravated by a cultural legitimation of
revenge. Confrontations marked by longstanding his-
torical grievances, habitual abuse of entrenched power
differentials, widely advocated contrary ideologies and
racism, and the poisonous influence of fundamentalist
religion on both sides might well be immune to any
individual effort to prepare for offence. Against such a
background the individual experience of offence pales
to insignificance, to a matter-of-fact confirmation of the
perceived status quo. In a way the opposing parties are
already prepared to be offended, and it offers little
help. While Europe is fortunate not to be encumbered
by such tragic circumstances, it will require serious ef-
forts not to let the situation deteriorate to that extent.
As in 1947 Palestine, the opportunities are still there.
Another obvious limit manifests in situations where
the offence is too overwhelming, as in the case of
over 2,000 annual cases of female genital mutilation
in the UK [8] and in other Western societies. The fact
that the practice violates local law seems less offen-
sive to the host culture than does the gross violation
of universally recognised human rights, committed on
cultural grounds that appear immaterial to the host
but all-important to the newcomer. This kind of moral
transgression is clearly in a different category than a
kosher restaurant serving pork, on account of the
human suffering and injustice involved and the
violation of moral norms that are globally subscribed to.
Asking the host culture to 'just get used to it' would
merely aggravate the offence and damage the status of
universal human rights. A mutually acceptable compro-
mise seems impossible in such situations.
This latter example shows how the situation of
displaced ethnocultural minorities changes the moral
ground on which the anticipatory effort to prepare for
offence takes place. Displaced people, whether they
arrived in their host country voluntarily or by force of
circumstance, are insecure guests. What I mean by
that is that they lack human security and particularly
cultural safety, relative to their hosts; they deserve to
be treated as one treats a guest in one's home (ex-
pected or not); and they are obliged to behave as
polite guests. Now where did we all go wrong in
relation to those norms?
What went wrong is, firstly, that neither side had
much of an idea of the other's vulnerable spots and
value priorities (and still hasn't, I reckon). Both sides
have very different cultural senses of humour, honour,
rights and obligations—not to speak of the language
barrier. But most importantly,
the house is now full
.
For about half a century, European countries have
operated under conditions of particularly strong eco-
logical overshoot, meaning that the impacts and de-
mands they made on their environmental support
structures (ecosystems) vastly exceeded the capacity
of those structures to sustainably support them. In
other words, Europe's carrying capacity has long since
been exceeded. The only reason this has worked so far
is because Europeans could afford to trade, steal or
otherwise appropriate resources and capacities from
other parts of the world. European colonial empires
were not just the passing fancies of monarchs! Even
with monarchs having receded into the background,
the neo-colonial means of perpetuating regional eco-
logical overshoot have survived and flourished—until
recently.
The most significant aspect of this historical turning
point is that we are approaching the end of the Age of
Waste. Resources are dwindling, populations and their
consumption are still growing, pollution and its resul-
tant effects on climate and health are changing the
planet and the rules that dictate a species' survival.
Many species are falling off the boat, never to be seen
again. Ecosystems are collapsing into simpler states,
less hospitable to humans and non-humans alike.
Every 'developed' national economy will have to ad-
just to the new contingencies, either by force or by
design; people will have to lead less luxurious, less
wasteful lives. Such a transition is possible, especially
in European societies that already have a low fertility
and at least a vague collective memory of historic
shortages and economic constraints. But the last thing
they need for that effort is more people at this time.
In the short term, Europeans and their guests will
do well to prepare to be offended by each other.
Where those offences are grave, compromises will
need to be negotiated. Furthermore, as an essential
requirement for lasting human security, Europeans will
need to embark on serious efforts towards their Great
Transition [9] towards a sustainable future of accept-
able quality. That will require economic degrowth,
knuckling down to some hard work, and creating ef-
ficient, resilient communities that depend only mini-
mally on external resources. Japan is leading this
process by example. But in the less developed, poorer
countries the collapse of agro-ecosystems will keep
generating refugees by the millions, and they will
keep trying to reach for the rich countries, primarily
Europe and the US, as their only perceived chance of
survival. In the longer term, and under the new
conditions of a changed planet, if Europe is to have a
reliable chance at attaining a sustainable future with
acceptable human security for all its citizens it cannot
accept additional millions of new citizens within its
borders. Once the Transition is achieved, this policy
should be reviewed.
I don't imply that siding with the neo-fascist fringe
on their uncompromising 'Fortress Europe' fantasy
would carry much promise of achieving that goal.
Rather more promising alternatives require a differ-
ential approach directed at reducing the 'pull factors'.
Immigrant quota should be limited to the demo-
3